Tuesday, September 16, 2008

Chilling Reports on Global Cooling

Here's a couple of articles on the subject.

From Accuweather:

Recent Chill could be Start of Longer Term Cooling, says Researcher
http://global-warming.accuweather.com/2008/09/recent_chill_be_the_start_of_l_1.html

This news article makes reference to a theoretical prediction by Prof. Don Easterbrook of Western Washington University, whose report is located here:
http://www.ac.wwu.edu/~dbunny/research/global/glocool_summary.pdf
Easterbook states:

Global temperatures during the Medieval Warm Period (900-1300 AD) were slightly higher than at present but plunged about 4° in only 20 years, initiating the Little Ice Age that caused severe famines in Europe and leading to the deaths of about one third of the population. Unfortunately, the Medieval Warm Period pre-dated direct observation of sun spots, but for about 100 years (beginning in 1609), sun spots were rare (the Maunder Minimum) and global climate was icy. Virtually all scientists now accept a solar cause of the Little Ice Age. The concern of the Canadian and Russian astrophysicists is that, leading into the coming predictable solar cycle, they are seeing a much lower level of sun spot activity than expected, resembling that which accompanied the plunging global temperatures at the beginning of the Little Ice Age. This is a distinct possibility. However, I think a more likely scenario is that we may be heading for a deeper global cooling than the last one (~1945 to 1977), perhaps similar to the 30-year cool period from 1880 to 1910 when many cold weather records were set.

This is all in keeping with standard climatology as known for many years (but basically ignored by advocates of the CO2 greenhouse theory).  The part which is new to me, is the claim of a drop of 4 degrees in 20 years.  That is an alarmingly steep change, but so has been the drop in global temperatures over the last two years.

Here's another related report:

http://www.redorbit.com/news/science/1553271/scientists_say_antarctic_winter_ice_is_growing/index.html
Scientists Say Antarctic Winter Ice Is Growing
Experts reported on Friday that the amount of sea ice around Antarctica has grown in recent Septembers in what could be an unusual side-effect of global warming.
Since the late 1970s, in the southern hemisphere winter, when emperor penguins huddle together against the biting cold, ice on the sea around Antarctica has been increasing, perhaps because climate change means shifts in winds, sea currents or snowfall.
But Arctic sea ice at the other end of the planet is now close to matching a September 2007 record low at the tail end of the northern summer in a threat to the hunting lifestyles of indigenous peoples and creatures such as polar bears.
"The Antarctic wintertime ice extent increased...at a rate of 0.6 percent per decade" from 1979-2006, said Donald Cavalieri, a senior research scientist at the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center.
He said at 19 million sq kms (7.34 million sq mile), it is still slightly below records from the early 1970s of 20 million. The average year-round ice extent has risen too.

What's interesting here is, no matter what happens climatically -- even cooling and more sea ice -- advocates of global warming will claim this all is "in agreement" with their theory.  That's problematic indeed, as the power and value of a theory, and its accuracy and correctness, is measured by its ability to predict.  If a theory is so totally useless that it cannot predict how nature functions or behaves, then it is of no value. So if you have a theory of global warming which does not embrace the idea of cyclical changes (that it is a forcing change from increased CO2, for example), but global cooling takes place instead, then your theory has been negated.  Now there are other theories, such as the system's view of the planet, which says warming and cooling cycles develop due to homeostatic feedback mechanisms, where one thermal situation progressively replaces the other due to how warming or cooling creates more or less precipitation and snowfall.  Or others which relate those thermal oscillations to changes in the length of the solar sunspot cycle, or the longer term cycles of solar luminosity.

Here's more:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/7404846.stm
'Fewer hurricanes' as world warms
By Mark Kinver
Science and nature reporter, BBC News
The study suggests hurricanes could become less frequent
Hurricanes and tropical storms will become less frequent by the end of the century as a result of climate change, US researchers have suggested.

The original theory predicted just the opposite, more hurricanes from global warming, not less... in spite of the fact that all empirical evidence from the Little Ice Age shows the existence of massive North Atlantic storms of a ferocity to suggest hurricanes might have ranged very far to the north.

More will be posted on this subject as the reports come in.

J.D.





Comments:
Since it is now cooling, the new answer is to say chaos. Then any change, up, down or sideways can be claimed. "We always meant global climate chaos"
 
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