Saturday, December 06, 2008

2008 Coldest Year in the Decade...

And still, No Sunspots!

They say it is the "trend that matters" not just one year of data.  Yes, that is correct.  But what about the global temperature leveling off, going into a slight cooling trend over the last 8 years?   As to the long-term trend, it is going either up, or down, depending upon where you make the starting point of your "trend".  Starting the "trend" at the low temperature point of the Little Ice Age, or just as we were coming out of that chilly period, and you are guaranteed to show a really nice "warming trend" especially since 1850.  Start the trend in the middle of the Pleistocene, 20,000 BC, and we appear to be soaring in temperatures!   Start in the middle of the Medieval Warm Period, however, around 1200 AD when the Vikings were settling Greenland (they were there for nearly 400 years, from around 980 to 1400), and we appear to be slightly on the cool side, not having got as warm as conditions were at that time.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2008/dec/05/climate-change-weather
2008 will be coolest year of the decade
Global average for 2008 should come in close to 14.3C, but cooler temperature is not evidence that global warming is slowing, say climate scientists

The main thing to note is that the temperatures have not continued to climb upward since around 2000, as predicted.

Also, the graphic they are using in this article (reproduced here) is a very old and discredited version of the "hockey-stick".  Today we know for certain that the 1930s were the warmest temperatures on record for many hundreds of years.  Yes, the warming is real.  But it is not driven by CO2, is not particularly spectacular when considering the Medieval Warm Period was appreciably warmer, that the 1930s were warmer than today, or just as warm, and that past climate history suggests it is part of a larger cycle, that eventualy things will cool off again, no matter how much CO2 humans are discharging into the atmosphere.  Solar variations is factually a better predictor of temperature change than CO2 variations.  The absence of sunspots suggests, a cooling trend since around 2 years.

The high temps everyone was claiming were record-breakers in the 1990s -- as with 1998 which was a rather warm and droughty El Nino year -- were in fact never getting quite so heated as in the 1930s, when North America suffered the "dust bowl". This fact was announced by NOAA climate-change offices, but I guess the MSM didn't get the memo.   In case you missed it, we did post out that memo to OBRL-News so it is in the archives.  You can also consult this report, one of many turned up by a simple internet search:

http://www.csmonitor.com/2007/0823/p02s01-wogi.html
Change in hottest year fuels global warming skeptics
A tweak to NASA's record shows that 4 of the 10 warmest years in the USoccurred during in the 1930s, not more recently. Climate change deniers say this points out that concern over global warming is unfounded.

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