Monday, August 16, 2010

Update on Claimed Global Warming

Making sense of the latest round of conflicting claims and news reports on "global warming".

With this summer have come many isolated reports of extremely hot temperatures, and so calls are being made from some quarters that "global warming" is with us once more, having taken only a short vacation.  Aside from the fact that there has been no defendable data showing a global warming over the last decade, which appears more to support a slight global cooling, it also does not appear there is any global aspect to whatever regional warming might be experienced here or there.  Sunspots remain at very low levels, from zero to no more than maybe five or ten per day when it should be several hundred per day at this part of the cycle.  And that has always been correlated with cooler conditions.  It is an anomaly which nobody fully understands or can explain, but the correlations are reasonably firm, that low sunspots will parallel cooler conditions generally.

In any case, the global average temperatures remain to be determined for 2010, so it is premature to say just what the computations will show by year's end -- and this is aside from the fact that one of the "top" climatological centers where such data is gathered and reviewed (Hadley Climate Research Unit in the UK) was caught basically cheating and lying about their data and methodology, crowing about successful dirty-tricks in mud-pasting anyone who was critical of the CO2 theory, bragging how they had thwarted publication of papers by their critics, plotting more dirty tricks and censorship, even while claiming "the dog ate our data" when asked to share their raw data so others could review their claim of a constantly warming Earth.  So whatever you hear from Hadley CRU, forget it.  NOAA and NASA have not so far yet been tainted in that scandal, to my knowledge, but since the entire scope of the CO2 theory is now being used as a club to forge new socialist legislation aimed at making government even bigger, and since NOAA and NASA are government agencies now headed by Obama-bots who will parrot whatever nonsense the White House wants (ie, the recent incredible NASA directives to repeat discredited claims about "Islamic scientific achievements", as if placating the defeated egos of theocratic totalitarians and terror-apologists is a part of their mission), one should be cautious about any of the claims of the CO2 fanatics.

They don't even use the same language as only a few years ago.  "Global warming" and "CO2 warming" has been largely dropped from their public articles in favor of the more generic "Climate Change" terms.  So like good Orwellians schooled in double-speak, even if global warming is no longer occurring, and no matter if the global temperature goes up or down, they can still sound alarm bells and try to stampede the herd over a cliff by the shrill call of "Climate Change!  Climate Change!".  And everyone should just forget, that climate has always changed by natural processes, over decades, centuries, and millennia.  The question must always reference back to their earlier accusations and claims, that "industrial CO2 is creating global warming".  That fairly narrow hypothesis is still the central-most question, and a fact-based answer formulated from data subjected to rational critical analysis always has been a resounding no, it isn't.

These problems aside, below I give a number of news reports suggest whatever warming has occurred over the last year is neither global nor uniform.  Here on the West Coast, at our location in rural Oregon, the summer has passed unusually cool.   We get hot times, but they pass quickly.  In the Southern Hemisphere, the recent winter (now underway) has been extremely cold in many places, record cold in fact, something which is reflected in the continued growth of the Antarctic ice-cap and ocean-ice field.  You can check this yourself at the Cryosphere Today website, which posts this data and graphs, updated periodically.
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/index.noshade.html

I'll post the two most recent graphs, for southern and northern sea-ice data, but if they don't transfer in this email then click on the provided links:
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/current.anom.jpg

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/current.anom.south.jpg

This kind of ice data is not typically reported by the socialist media in any detail, as when you review both graphs together it is pretty clear the global sum of the two hemisphere is mostly unchanged, with the major deviations towards ice-loss in the Northern Hemisphere and ice-gain in the Southern balancing each other out, and with the divergence appearing primarily since the late 1990s.  But there are other reasons why these polar-ice data stand in opposition to any claim of "global" warming.

The heat-waves and droughts in Russia this summer appear connected not with global warming, but instead with an unusually strong northward displacement of the large Saharasian desert atmosphere, which is already hyper-arid and hot.  It moves north and south seasonally, in coordination with a similar north-south shift of the mid-latitude rainy belts.  However, it rarely moves so far north as seen this summer, where it intrudes into normally wetter regions of northern Central Asia.  This anomalous northward movement is connected with the unusually strong monsoon observed in the desert regions of Pakistan, NW India and Western China, which have been hit with exceptionally heavy rains and flooding starting around the same time as the Russian heat waves.  As the heavy storms move northward out of the Indian Ocean, they literally push up against the dry and stagnant Saharasian air mass, which is displaced northward.  The problem of Russian drought and fires is therefore connected with severe flooding in the regions south of the Hindu Kush.

The Saharasian Desert Belt is located fully within the Northern Hemisphere.  The periodic expansion or displacement of its dry-hot atmosphere may be the reason for similarly periodic warmer conditions in the Norther Hemisphere, with attending sea-ice loss, as compared to the Southern.  It has nothing to do with CO2 or industry, but is rather connected with long-term energetically-driven pressure, circulation and precipitation cycles which affect this large desert-belt.  And those cycles may also be linked with Solar variations.  The expansion or contraction of the large Saharasian Desert Belt atmosphere seems critically central to the problem.  The Southern Hemisphere is influenced by this expansion-contraction of the Saharasian dry regions only indirectly and probably with several years of lag-time, as it takes some years for cross-equatorial mixing of the air masses.  This desert belt is typically not discussed in the climatology textbooks in any unified manner (only by desert-research specialists, who increasingly have adopted my own language, if not also the term "Saharasia" which I coined back in the 1970s), even though every map of global climate will show it, staring you right in the face.   This is all detailed in my book Saharasia.  It has a powerful influence upon global climate, even more so than the polar ice caps, but is hardly recognized as such.  Read my book for the details, especially the chapter on "The Saharasian Desert Belt".  And if you only have the First Edition of the Saharasia book, you might wish to get the Second Edition, which carries a new appendix document as well as some minor corrections and additions.  Ordering links are given at the "Saharasia" webpage:
http://www.saharasia.org

James DeMeo, PhD
Director of OBRL

Articles of Interest

Not So Hot: Houston has first summer without 100+ temperatures
http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/metropolitan/7152934.html

Temperatures continue well below average in Southern California
http://www.whittierdailynews.com/news/ci_15723011

Argentina colder than Antarctica
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-08-03/argentina-colder-than-antarctica-spurs-record-power-imports-shuts-plants.html
Bolivia freezing disaster
http://www.boliviabella.com/1-million-fish-dead-in-bolivian-ecological-disaster.html

Russian Fires
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/worldnews/article-1300856/Russian-wildfires-Smog-blankets-Moscow-fires-rage-control-record-heatwave.html

The Pakistan Floods
http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/World-News/Pakistan-Floods-Twenty-Million-Are-Homeless-After-Deluge-Prime-Minister-Yousuf-Raza-Gilani-Says/Article/201008215683644

Floods in Rajasthan
http://ibnlive.in.com/news/floodlike-situation-in-rajasthan-after-heavy-rains/123410-3.html?from=tn

More floods in Western China
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=129061163

The CO2-warming theorists predicted an upsurge in tropical cyclones due to global warming.  It hasn't happened, so far at least.
http://www.coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/tropical/

And here's one on the CO2-theory's real agenda; hang on to your wallets.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100805/ap_on_sc/climate_change







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